Economic optimism and uncertainty 

The latest Grant Thornton International Business Report (IBR) survey found that mid-market business leaders around the world are less optimistic about the economic outlook over the next 12 months, with 71% expressing optimism (down two points from Q1 2025). Meanwhile, Vietnamese mid-market businesses stand out for their high levels of optimism, even as headwinds looms large on the global stage. Specifically, 83% of Vietnamese business leaders report feeling optimistic about the economic outlook for the next year compared to 79% in Q1. 

Yet this optimism does not extend fully to global expansion ambitions. In fact, indicators tied to cross-border intentions have declined sharply this quarter. This signals a more cautious approach to overseas expansion and an inward-focused business sentiment. 

Global ambitions: Trade pressures impact international outlook

This rising sense of unease is impacting the global mid-market’s international outlook, with the proportion of business leaders expecting to increase exports down three points to 50%. Vietnam saw even a steeper decline, as only 37% of Vietnamese firms expect to increase exports over the next year, down dramatically from 60% in Q1. Globally, those expecting an increase in revenues from non-domestic markets fell four points to 48%, while in Vietnam the figure also dropped, from 55% to 44%.  Vietnam’s more cautious stance follows one of the most serious trade threats in years. In early 2025, the U.S. considered a sweeping 46% tariff on Vietnamese exports over concerns about transshipment. This triggered widespread concern among exporters, prompting many to respond in different ways: pausing overseas activities, planning for diversification, or focusing on a smaller set of trusted markets. It also appears to have influenced supplier strategies: only 26% of Vietnamese businesses now expect to increase use of non-domestic suppliers, down from 41% last quarter and well below the global average (41%). This change likely reflects a desire to reduce exposure to trade risks and aligns with the government’s push for greater domestic value-added production and supply chain self-reliance. Following weeks of tension, high-level negotiations between the two governments produced a more favorable outcome—limiting the general tariff to 20% and applying a 40% rate to transshipped goods, which may help restore business sentiment in the period ahead.

Business constraints: Global caution and internal stability 

Globally, concerns about economic uncertainty have increased, rising six points to 61%. Concerns over geopolitical disruption went up six points to 53%, a new high. Business leaders concerned about supply chains also reached a record high of 49% (up one point). Those concerned about a future shortage of orders also peaked at 50% (up three points). Meanwhile, perceived business constraints have eased across various aspects for firms in Vietnam. The proportion of business leaders citing economic uncertainty as a major concern dropped from 70% to 57%. Fewer firms cited future shortage of orders as a major concern (52%, down from 58%), while worries about geopolitical disruptions (41%, down from 44%) and supply chain risks (47%, down from 53%) have similarly softened.  This reduction in business constraints suggests that while Vietnamese firms are more cautious globally, there might be a growing sense of internal stability, a sign of the impact of the wave of structural reforms unfolding within Vietnam’s governance and administrative system at the moment.